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Daily Analysis – Thursday, February 23, 2017


The British government has sold holdings in Lloyds bank forwarding the income to reducing national debt. The bank was bailed out in 2008 with the government purchasing a 39% stake; it now holds 3.89% . Germany’s GDP growth came in at 1.7% with consumer sentiment falling 0.2 to 10. France’s business sentiment is up to 107 following Tuesday’s CPI, which rose 2 points to 56.2.


President Trump’s immigration laws may cost the US more than $5 trillion  over a 10-year period. The US National Bureau of Economic Research reports that 20% of agricultural workers and 13% of construction labor is done by illegal aliens. The Federal Reserve’s FOMC minutes from its February 1st meeting released yesterday mentioned an interest rate increase “fairly soon”, causing the USD to fall against peers, erasing earlier gains. And retail sales in Canada yesterday show a nine-month record drop in December. The news generated a 40 pip loss for the CAD.



After yesterday’s US FOMC minutes, Asian markets traded down, with the Hang Seng losing 0.4%, the Shanghai Composite 0.39% and the Nikkei 0.11%. Taiwan may ban cash to help prevent money laundering, according to sources from the ministry of justice. And, housing prices in tier 1 & 2 Chinese cities have decelerated their increases in the past two  months following eighteen months of acceleration.



WTI oil rose to $54 overnight, following the API’s reported of a mere 884K barrel increase in reserves. Last week’s number was 9.9mB. This after Exxon downgraded its reserves estimate yesterday by more than 3 billion barrels – 15% – generating a loss of $17 bn in company value.  Bitcoin has begun climbing again after the SEC’s approved the bitcoin ETF release this coming March 11. It is now trending above 113.


Barclays yesterday showed a year’s profits of 1.6bn GBP thanks in large part to its restructuring program. Tesla’s quarterly report exceeded expectations, pushing up shares by nearly 3% as trading began.

Week’s Events

1:30 PM GMT US – Jobless Claims followed by housing price index at 2.
4 PM GMT EIA Crude Oil Stocks change

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